In recent weeks, the rumour of a coup attempt against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has stirred Nigeria’s political waters once again. Though official sources swiftly denied the narrative, the mere fact that such an allegation can gain traction reveals something deeper: a crisis of trust in institutions, leadership, and the direction of the nation.
Reports surfaced of senior military officers allegedly plotting to seize power during Nigeria’s Independence Day celebrations. On the face of it, the claims sounded sensational — dramatic plans, symbolic targets, and the suggestion of a breakdown in top-level military loyalty. But what followed was a mix of blanket denials, cancelled ceremonies, and no transparent investigation. The result: confusion, speculation, and the unsettling question — who really controls the levers of power in Nigeria?
From the perspective of many citizens, this has become more than a security story: a mirror held up to the country’s institutional weaknesses. On one side, we see the armed forces, meant to safeguard the nation, apparently implicated in political scripts. On the other hand, we see the civilian executive culture — purportedly in charge — grappling with how to respond publicly. Somewhere in between lies the Nigerian citizen, caught between rhetoric and reality, worried that the stability we assume may be far more fragile than we believe.
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The military’s reputation is at stake. When defence intelligence arrests alleged plotters and activation of ceremonial routines changes overnight, the message filters down: even disciplined institutions can become actors in the political game. When fairly routine Independence Day processes are abruptly altered, citizens ask: Is the government hiding something, or are the rumour-mongers exaggerating? Neither answer inspires confidence.
For the President and his administration, the piece-by-piece denials may serve political survival, but they do little to calm nerves. The absence of public accountability, no transparent tribunal, no detailed charge sheet, no open independent inquiry, feeds a growing sense of grievance, especially among opposition forces and civil society. When governance goes opaque, many interpret it as legitimising back-door power plays. In a country already battle-scarred by military regimes, this is no small matter.
Crucially, the ethnic and regional dimension cannot be ignored. Nigeria’s plural reality means that every major institutional crisis acquires a communal lens. If a coup, real or imagined, is perceived as favouring one region or ethnicity over another, the consequences extend far beyond the barracks and the presidency: they seep into markets, communities, and neighbourhoods. The bitter memory of previous coups, which sometimes morphed into targeted cleansing or retributive violence, is still vivid for many.
And the economic cost may already be mounting. Investor confidence thrives on predictability, clarity, and institutional stability. Rumours of military intervention, even those later dismissed, rattle markets, unsettle the naira, and prompt businesses to pause long-term decisions. In a Nigeria still fighting to diversify its economy and reduce dependency on oil, this is the last thing we need.
Why We Must Demand Change — Not Just Calm
So what should Nigerians demand? First, transparency: even if the alleged plot was exaggerated or misreported, the government owes the people clarity. A formal explanation, public hearing, and an independent inquiry would do more than a defence minister’s press release. It would rebuild trust.
Second, reform: the military must remain under civilian control—not just in letter, but in spirit. This much, the amiable Chief of Defence Staff, Lt Gen, CG Musa, has promised severally. That means clear command chains, oversight, civilian participation in defence affairs, and institutional culture that resists politics. Civil society, media and opposition must act as watchdogs — not just critics.
Third, democratic stamina: Nigeria cannot afford a regression into the notion that power transfer is negotiable and coups are plausible. Every day we delay reinforcing democratic processes, we inch closer to instability. Leadership must be about service, ethics and inclusion — not narrow interests and survival, dressed in the toga of national interest.
Globally, the warning signs are clear. When elites believe that change is impossible or that institutions no longer serve, they stop submitting to democratic rules. When militaries believe they can intervene without cost, society pays in trust, cohesion, and long-term growth. Nigeria must learn from this pattern and resist it.
A Cautionary Note for Nigeria’s Future
We cannot ignore the fact that coups rarely resolve the problems they claim to solve. They often deepen divisions, especially when they are seen as favouring one group over another or when they avoid accountability. The longer Nigeria defers clear questions about civilian-military relations, the more plausible it becomes for future actors to view coups as options.
If Nigeria ever slips into a full or attempted military takeover, the damage will not be just political — it will ripple into the economy, social fabric, and national identity. The worst-case scenario is not a brief interruption of civilian rule: it is the fragmentation of trust that cannot easily be rebuilt.
As the Yorùbá proverb reminds us:
“Tà bá ń jà, bí ká kú kọ́
” — even when we fight, we don’t have to wish each other death. Nigeria, in all its complexity, cannot afford to fight the wrong battle — that between citizens and their institutions. Instead, the battle must be for deeper inclusion, stronger oversight, and genuine leadership. Taking out President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, through a military coup, bloody or not, cannot solve Nigeria’s problems; it will only deepen them.
Final Thoughts
Rumours of a coup against President Tinubu may or may not be founded. But the alarm it has raised is real. Nigeria finds itself at a pivotal moment, where institutional credibility, civilian rule, and national unity are under examination. How we respond — with clarity, reform, and humility—will matter perhaps more than the allegations themselves.
Let us hope that this moment becomes less about conspiracy and more about transformation. Because the only way Nigeria truly wins is by reinforcing the rules, not undermining them. And in that spirit, we must fight tirelessly.