Abubakar Kari, a professor of political sociology at the University of Abuja, says the African Democratic Congress (ADC) can still turn recent political defections to its advantage despite internal crises. Speaking with Weekend Trust, he argued that many politicians joining the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) or those they meet in the party may soon feel sidelined, creating opportunities for the ADC to expand its base ahead of 2027.
Five months after the coalition-led takeover of the ADC, the optimism that greeted its formation seems to have waned. From your observation, why has the coalition struggled to sustain the political momentum?
There are several reasons for that. First and foremost, a coalition is always a work in progress. They may have been working behind the scenes, recruiting people quietly and consolidating their structure without much fanfare. However, Nigerians expected much more from the coalition. For instance, they anticipated more high-profile defections. When the ADC-led coalition was launched, there were a few prominent figures joining, but we haven’t seen much of that lately.
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Secondly, the ruling party has not been idle. It has been doing everything possible to frustrate the coalition, including applying both carrot-and-stick tactics on some of those expected to join.
But perhaps the most significant reason the coalition has not met expectations is what I would call the inherent suspicion among its key players, particularly over how positions will be shared. There are at least three principal figures, all with presidential ambitions, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rotimi Amaechi, and it seems none of them is ready to concede that position to another. Each of them wants to keep the possibility open, and that explains their reluctance to fully commit or campaign vigorously for the coalition.
Another factor is the internal crisis within the party, both at the national and state levels. For instance, one Nafiu still lays claim to the national chairmanship of the ADC and rejects the legitimacy of David Mark and his group. There are indications that he is working with the APC, which certainly wouldn’t want the ADC to gain strength.
A lot of the intra-party disputes in the ADC stem from its political potential. Many politicians want to be in control, anticipating that when the spoils of victory are shared, they’ll be in a better position to benefit. There’s also tension between the original ADC members and those joining from outside, each group seeking to assert dominance.
How damaging do you think these disputes, especially those at the state level, have been to the coalition’s credibility and to its claim of being a unifying opposition platform?
Well, conflict and contestation for power are natural in politics. Politics is essentially about reconciling competing interests. Seen from that perspective, internal disagreements are normal and not necessarily problematic.
However, when conflicts are deliberately sponsored, when unseen hands are working to undermine the ADC, then such disputes pose a serious challenge to the party’s coherence and identity. The ADC is still a party in the making, a work in progress, and it cannot afford to be overwhelmed by internal strife.
The more harmonious and peaceful it becomes, the better for everyone. Unresolved conflicts are never good for any political organisation. Politics involves both conflict and reconciliation, but when disputes linger without resolution, they can become damaging. The real problem is not the existence of disagreements but the seeming inability to resolve them. If they remain unsettled, they will inevitably hurt the party.
You mentioned the ambitions of major figures such as Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. But beyond them, even former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai has yet to formally pick up an ADC membership card. Does this suggest a lack of trust in the process by these leaders, or a deeper problem with opposition politics in Nigeria?
I’m actually surprised to hear that because I thought Nasir El-Rufai was even contesting the ADC leadership in Kaduna State. Kaduna is one of the states with internal disputes. Some members claim El-Rufai isn’t part of their party, but he insists he is an authentic ADC member.
What I know is that as part of political manoeuvring, the prime movers of the coalition have explored multiple options, including maintaining several platforms. It’s possible the ADC may not be their final political home. Just as they left the SDP, they might also vacate the ADC if necessary.
Note that one of the emerging political groups seeking registration, the ADA, is reportedly a brainchild of the same coalition. So, they may be trying to create a platform where they cannot be easily dislodged or undermined by the ruling APC’s perceived machinations.
Do you think the ADC made a strategic mistake by positioning itself as the central vehicle for opposition unity before addressing its internal weaknesses?
No, I don’t think it was a mistake. As I said earlier, weaknesses are inevitable in any project that is still evolving. The ADC is still defining its niche. That process will naturally come with challenges and missteps.
In fact, it is commendable that they are attempting this despite the dominance of bigger parties like the PDP. Many people even regard the ADC as a more serious opposition than the PDP, and that’s a strength they should build on. If they can leverage the perception that they are now Nigeria’s foremost opposition party, it could work to their advantage, even though they remain relatively smaller than the PDP, Labour Party, or NNPP.
While the opposition is still trying to align, the APC appears to be expanding through a wave of high-profile defections. How significant is this trend for the balance of power ahead of 2027?
It’s quite significant. The APC seems intent on projecting itself as an even broader coalition than the ADC. It wants to create the impression of unity and strength, showing that it remains unshaken by the emergence of opposition platforms like the ADC.
The APC has many strategies to convince Nigerians of its solidity, and so far, those tactics appear to be working. But how long they can sustain this image remains to be seen. There are underlying tensions and divisions within the party, though they’ve managed to keep them beneath the surface. For now, they’ve succeeded in containing them, but time will tell how long that lasts.
Does that mean you don’t share the opposition’s concern that these high-profile defections could lead Nigeria toward a one-party state?
The idea of a one-party state in Nigeria is impossible. It has never happened and never will. Historically, Nigeria’s politics has always gravitated towards a two-party system, a dominant ruling party and one or two strong opposition parties.
No matter how many people join the APC, there will still be a viable opposition, whether in the form of the ADC, the PDP, or a combination of both. Of course, opposition parties will use the rhetoric of a “one-party state” for propaganda purposes, but in reality, Nigeria’s political culture does not support such a system. There will always be opposition, even if the scale of its influence fluctuates.
Many Nigerians who initially saw the coalition as a fresh hope for political realignment now seem disillusioned by these developments. What does this say about the state of opposition politics in Nigeria?
One of the major weaknesses of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic is the state of the opposition. But opposition strength doesn’t emerge overnight. It takes time to build.
So, it’s misplaced for people to be so sceptical at this stage. The best way to strengthen the opposition is to give it the benefit of the doubt and allow it to grow. Those who expect something dramatic are being unrealistic; political drama doesn’t always translate into substance.
We can only properly assess the opposition’s strength when the 2027 election timetable is out and party primaries begin. For now, it’s still too early to write them off or lose hope.
Finally, what realistic steps can the ADC-led coalition take at this stage to regain credibility and strengthen its structure before the 2027 elections?
They should continue working and building. I still believe they stand to benefit from internal discontent within the APC. Historically, the APC has faced internal problems, especially when power-sharing arrangements fail to satisfy everyone.
Even those defecting into the APC today might have a rethink if they don’t get what they expect. It’s nearly impossible to satisfy all factions within a political behemoth like the APC. When discontent sets in, those who feel marginalised will start looking elsewhere, and the ADC could become the most attractive alternative.
So, even by simply waiting and watching developments within the APC, the ADC could gain. But they should also be proactive by reaching out to disenchanted members of the APC, PDP, Labour Party, and NNPP.
The PDP’s forthcoming convention on November 15 may produce more disgruntled members. The Labour Party is already divided between the Abure and Nenadi Usman factions, and there are simmering tensions in the NNPP. The ADC should build a robust platform capable of accommodating and attracting these dissatisfied politicians. That’s what politics is ultimately about.Read Original