The debate for and against the eligibilty of former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to contest the presidential election has, in recent times, understandably, dominated the political discourse across the country in the build-up to the forthcoming 2027 poll.
But the phenomenal trend of his name popping up in preparation to every of such major elections will definitely no longer come as a surprise. Obviously, dropping his name has gradually become a recurring decimal in the past three presidential election seasons.
From the 2019 to the 2023 poll, and now in the build-up to the 2027 presidential election, his speculated interest in vying for the ticket has become recurrent.
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In the preparation for the 2019 presidential poll, when rumours were rife that Jonathan was nursing the aspiration to square up against then incumbent President, Muhammadu Buhari, for example, it took his intervention in the media to rest the speculation, particularly after his admission that he was moved to tears seeing people shouting “GEJ, we want you back”.
While dismissing the possibility of returning to the office then, Jonathan had noted: “I am not God, but I sincerely doubt the possibility. People come to me every day saying they want me back. I am always moved to tears whenever I go out and see the huge crowd shouting GEJ, we want you, even in the North.
“Instead of getting swollen-headed, I actually reflect on my achievements, mistakes and feel humbled and very sober… I have never been a man of inordinate ambition. I am a man of very modest means. I hardly travel because of the logistical costs. I have played my part and I have moved on,” he said to foreclose the possibilities of his return to power then.
Jonathan was even more definite when asked what he would do should PDP offer an automatic 2019 presidential ticket to him. He said “Are you not aware that our party has zoned the presidency to the North, and the chairmanship to the South? Even Ayo Fayose, who declared interest, may face big challenges because of the decision of our party.”
However, despite dismissing such aspiration during that dispensation, it did not stop similar speculations from rearing its ugly head again in the build-up to the 2023 presidential poll. The dropping of his name was so real that a group of northern cattle breeders even spent over a N100 million to purchase the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential expression of interest and nomination forms for him.
But, if only they had stopped at buying the nomination forms for him, it would have slid like similar other speculations during the previous election year; some Nigerians went as far as visiting his office in Abuja, to appeal and pressure him into entering the race.
And perhaps, moved by emotions or indecision, the Bayelsa-born politician came close to accepting their appeal, shoring up their hopes with the expression of “watch out.”
He had told them, “Yes, you are calling me to come and declare for the 2023 presidency, yes, I can’t tell you that I am declaring, the political process is ongoing, just watch out.”
However, when he weighed the options and finally realised the enormity, he was said to have resolved to pull out of the race and, as usual, he claimed, in a statement by his spokesperson, Ikechukwu Eze, that he was neither aware of any prior moves by the cattle dealers nor ever authorised them to procure the nomination forms on his behalf.
The statement read: “It has come to our notice that a group has purportedly purchased APC presidential forms in the name of former President Jonathan. We wish to categorically state that he was not aware of this bid and did not authorise it.
“We want to state that, if he wanted to contest any election, he would make his intentions clear to the public and will not enter through the back door. While we appreciate the overwhelming request by a cross-section of Nigerians for him to make himself available for the 2023 presidential elections, we wish to state that he has not in any way committed himself to this request,” Eze stated with equivocation.
But, in what apparently looked as if no lesson had been learnt, the clamour urging Jonathan to contest ahead of the forthcoming 2027 presidential poll has started building up loudly again.
From a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Prof Jerry Gana to the least of his supporters, the usual continuous clamour for him to join the race has heightened the political temperature in the country.
Boldly confirming that Jonathan will run in the 2027 presidential election on the platform of PDP, Prof. Gana had recently said: “In 2015, former President Jonathan said his ambition was not worth the blood of Nigerians. After him another President ruled for eight years and now another has ruled for two years. Nigerians have seen the difference and the difference is very clear.
“Nigerians are now asking us to bring back our friend, Jonathan. I can confirm that he will contest the 2027 presidential election as PDP candidate and you will vote for him to return as President again,” Prof. Gana said.
But, dismissing his claims, PDP’s National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, had denied the opposition party ever directed the former Minister of Information to make such an utterance or hatch any plan to offer an automatic ticket to him.
Ologunagba said: “Prof. Gana doesn’t speak for the PDP. I don’t speak for him. People can express their opinion. But I will emphasise this: in this party, as we are, former President Jonathan is a member; he has not said he is not a member. But I can tell you, this party has eminently qualified Nigerians, particularly at the governors’ level.
“They have done exceedingly well that Nigeria can tap on and say, step up the place and do the right thing, because their performances in their states show their capacity, which is actually the DNA of the PDP. Our party is focused on our convention, and when we get to that bridge, we will cross it,” he said.
As usual, characteristics of former president Jonathan, he has maintained a discomforting silence in confirming his aspiration since the rumours of his plan to contest the forthcoming presidential election started spreading.
And by way of complicating the issue, not even the comments from both his wife, Dame Patience, and the ferocious attack from the presidency, targeted at discouraging and dissuading him, could make him speak up to categorically confirm his interest in laying the matter to a permanent rest.
Recall that while celebrating her relationship with First Lady Oluremi Tinubu and distancing herself from the stress involved in venturing into public office again, the former first lady tactically declared support for President Tinubu to continue.
“The distress of Nigeria is so much that if God manages to bring you out of it, you should glorify Him. Why do you want to go back there? I need peace… My peace is enough. I told her (Oluremi) that I would campaign with her. I am not running. I am not going back to the Villa. If you call me, I will not go,” Dame, who has a strong influence on her husband, Jonathan, said.
Apparently rattled by his muteness in the escalating speculations, the presidency, through the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, had noted: “Jonathan reserves the right to run if he wishes. It is his inalienable right to contest the presidency again.
“But he will have his date in the court of the land…and will also have his encounter with the people as to whether he has anything new to offer after his disastrous six years, for which they voted him out in 2015.
“We cannot forget in a hurry how his regime, devoid of any clear economic agenda, engaged in frivolous spending, ran the economy aground and put the country in dire straits,” he noted in the statement.
The presidency further said : “It is on record that between 2010 and 2013, crude oil sold for an average of $100 per barrel. By December 2014, however, the Jonathan-led government could no longer pay salaries to Federal Civil Servants. At least 28 states across the country owed workers huge salary arrears.
“They broke the economy before, and millions of Nigerians who will not easily forget the recent past will not allow them to return to run it down again.”
Incidentally, instead of the threats by the presidency and comments by his wife indicating that he won’t run, to force him to chicken out of the race, Jonathan, in the contrary seems to have even fuelled and rekindled the speculations with his extensively publicised visits to both Peter Obi, the 2023 Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate and the interim National Chairman of the opposition coalition party, African Democratic Congress (ADC), Senator David Mark, perhaps as part of his consultations.
In the perception of many Nigerians, former president Jonathan administered the country like a man afraid of his own shadow, a man perpetually consulting, constantly studying the situation, and forever setting up committees, but he is also a man with listening ears.
History may however remember him as a man who helplessly watched the country to be subdued under the weight of insecurity orchestrated by the Boko Haram insurgents that metamorphosed from a ragtag group of extremists into a full-blown terrorist army, capturing territories, overrunning military bases, and hoisting their black flags in many parts of the country, particularly the northern region.
Ordinarily, pundits say, Jonathan is certainly not the president Nigerians are desirous of but having gone through the crucibles of what many political watchers described as inefficiency and agonising pains of hunger and hopelessness since the APC-led administration took charge, Nigerians have, all of a sudden, seen him as a better saint to clamour for to lead them even if it is back to the Egypt regardless of the hurdles of crossing the red sea.
However, what may count against him, according to his detractors, is that Nigerians seem to be wiser in choosing their leaders, especially who becomes the president. They are no longer ready to be beguiled by the rhetoric of humble background after passing through the deceptive humbling beginnings of Jonathan.
But, if he braces the odds and finally decides to throw his hat into the ring to contest, his renewed aspiration will, among other things, certainly resurrect the unending debate over his eligibility to stand for the election and the legality of swearing him in for the third time.
His eligibility has consistently resulted in the clash of legal luminaries over the correct interpretation of the controversial section 137 (3) of the Constitution of Nigeria 1999 as amended on the number of times an elected political officer should be sworn in, stipulating that; “A person who was sworn in to complete the term for which another person was elected as president shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term.”
Recall that activist and lawyer, Femi Falana, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), had previously argued that Jonathan is not eligible by virtue of a section of the Constitution, while other lawyers like Mike Ozekhome, SAN, and Abdul Mahmod have argued that he is still eligible to serve another term of four years. The face-off, which actually cast serious doubt on his aspiration, must be clear before the coast finally becomes very clear for him to plunge into the race.
Again, and even more importantly, what will escalate the debate and raise apprehension to pitch level will be which political party between the PDP and ADC will provide a more viable and advantageous platform to him for a historic contest against a more politically deft incumbent, President Tinubu.
Weighing in on the matter, a member of ADC national leadership, told Daily Sun in confidence that the coast will become clearer as to whether Jonathan will contest and the more importantly, the political platform by the end of the month.